Blogcast: The Latino Vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election
In the latest episode of the HCIAS podcast, Dr. Yaatsil Guevara González, Junior Professor for Migration and the Americas at the Heidelberg Center for Ibero-American Studies welcomes to Dr. Angela X. Ocampo, Assistant Professor in Mexican American and Latino/a Studies at the University of Texas at Austin, for a discussion about the Latino Vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. This podcast took place within the frame of the Migration and the Americas lecture series, organized by the HCIAS, the Heidelberg Center for American Studies (HCA), and the Institute of Geography at Heidelberg University.
The following transcript has been edited for length and clarity
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Yaatsil Guevara González and Angela X. Ocampo [L-R]. Image credit: HCIAS.
Yaatsil: Today, we are going to talk about the Latino community and its political behavior in the U.S. presidential election in 2024. But before we start with this topic, I would like to ask you a very simple question: who makes up the Latino population? Who are these people? How is the Latino in the U.S. community conformed?
Angela: Thanks, Yaatsil. It’s a real pleasure and honor to be here with you all. So let me start by talking a little bit about who is part of the Latino/a community in the United States. It’s a very diverse community, diverse in the sense that it encompasses people from over 20 different national origin countries and territories in Latin America and the Spanish-speaking Caribbean. So U.S. Latinos trace their ancestry to many of these contexts.
But, within the Latino community, we also have , many people who are not necessarily immigrants themselves, but who are children of immigrants or the grandchildren of immigrants. And in fact, there is a part of the Latino community that actually never migrated into the United States. And I think it’s really important to also remember how this, I think, informs diversity of the community. Part of the United States was at some point part of Mexico. And there’s an old saying, people of Mexican origin who are fifth generation in the United States, they’ll say “we never crossed the border, the border crossed us”. And that speaks to the fact that their ancestors never migrated, rather the territory where they were living was subsumed into the United States.
That gives us a kind of a bit of a window into what diversity looks like: people with different national origins, as I mentioned, people who belong to different generations since they or their family arrived in the U.S., including those who have no migratory background whatsoever – most of that population is actually in New Mexico and Texas, but also California. The Latino community also has a great deal of legal status diversity. So there’s a share of the population that is undocumented, but also a big share of the population that is documented either because they have some sort of permit either to work and reside in the United States, or they’re naturalized citizens or U.S. citizens by birth. There’s also a great deal of language diversity. I think the assumption is that most Latinos either speak Spanish, or their ancestors spoke Spanish, but we also know that there are many that come from indigenous communities, and their linguistic heritage includes other, indigenous languages.
So it’s a very diverse community. And I think those are some of the important markers of that diversity.
Yaatsil: You mentioned the issue of legality and undocumented migrants. That makes me wonder how the Latino voting community was established in the United States? How did it come about historically that the Latino, Latina, Latinx established this voting space, these kind of rights?
Angela: Yeah, so speaking about the Latino electorate, we have to consider who is actually eligible to vote, and can vote. So in order for people to be eligible to vote in the United States, you have to be a U.S. citizen. And Latinos can be U.S. citizens either because they were born in the United States or because they’re naturalized citizens. And that’s who makes up the Latino eligible voting population.
Non-citizens cannot vote, althout that’s not to say that indirectly they’re not either represented or that their voices are not included in U.S. democracy. In fact, a great deal of undocumented people have been activists and have fought a lot for rights and opportunities in the United States. And some of the most well-known activists of the immigrant rights movement have been people who are undocumented. They’ve also not only participated in social movements, activism, but they actually, many have worked in political campaigns. So their activism isn’t only pertaining to the protest and social movement arena, but also enters into the electoral politics domain. And so it’s not that people who lack citizenship are not participating. They’re actually participating at great lengths – it’s just that they’re not eligible to vote.
In terms of those who are eligible to vote, many strides have been made for Latinos to have equal access to the ballot box. But there are still many challenges. It’s important to acknowledge how much Latinos have benefited from the civil rights movement of the 50s and the 60s, which was very arduous and hard fought by African Americans to have access to the ballot box and to eliminate a lot of formal exclusion restrictions from voting. There were things historically that prevented minorities, Black individuals in particular, from participating: poll taxes; literacy tests; and that sort of thing. The access that Latinos currently have is a legacy of the push that was made in that way and that allowed the establishment of legislation like the Voting Rights Act.
Unfortunately, we’ve had major setbacks in that regard because many sections of the Voting Rights Act have been struck down. This has resulted in many challenges for Latinos and other communities of color in the United States. And why is that the case? The Voting Rights Act allowed, or rather ensured, that the Department of Justice would scrutinize changes made to voting rights legislation in different states. Now that’s no longer necessarily the case and states have an easier way to pass laws that restrict voting rights.
In the United States, the access that you have to voting really depends in the state where you live. Some states have more restrictions than others. And currently, when we think about the Latino population, I think we also have to think about where they reside when we consider their access to voting. The Latino population is concentrated in certain states, like California and Texas. And when you compare these two states, California and Texas, we see that Texas has much harsher restrictions when it comes to voting. They require a photo ID, which can be a hurdle sometimes for people who have fewer resources.
In California, registration is much easier. You can vote by mail. You can’t vote by mail in Texas unless you meet certain requirements. And, you know, some of these laws change from time to time. But when you compare sort of the differences between states where Latinos live, you see that it really impacts their ability to participate.
Yaatsil: You mentioned political behavior. So my question would be, what is the political behavior of the Latino community in the U.S. like? I know that this is a complex question, but could you maybe describe a bit the tendencies or behaviors we can identify within the Latino community?
Angela: The Latino community, for the most part, still votes for Democratic candidates. While there have been some recent gains by Republican candidates in securing Latino votes, the majority—often a plurality—continues to support Democrats.
Latino voting behavior is largely driven by key issues and top concerns that shape their priorities. These concerns tend to lean liberal and are often influenced by context and current experiences. It’s important to note that their priorities can shift over time. A common misconception is that immigration is always the most important issue for Latino voters. While it is a concern, it’s not necessarily the top priority.
Looking back, even when immigration ranked among the top three or five issues, other concerns like health care, the economy, and education played significant roles in shaping Latino political behavior. During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, health care and COVID-19 itself were top priorities. Currently, the economy—including inflation and jobs—is the most important issue for many Latino voters.
Additionally, Latinos care about social and moral issues. However, on average, they are less polarized than the broader American electorate. While their views can vary based on partisan affiliation, they tend to hold less extreme positions compared to the general voting population.
Yaatsil: In the news recently, we saw that the Latino community was frequently blamed, so to speak, for the result of the 2024 presidential election . We all know that Trump won the election and in the newspapers and on TV and social media there was a tendency to suggest the Latino community was responsible for this. Would you agree?
Angela: It’s a great point that you bring this up because immediately after the election this past November, there was a great deal of talk as to how to make sense of what had happened and especially how to make sense of the fact that there had been some inroads by Republicans with the Latino vote. And I think that, it’s important to think of it within the context of the fact that it wasn’t just Latinos that moved in greater support for Trump.
The shift in voting patterns occurred nationwide, not just among Latinos. So while the voting pattern we saw perhaps confounded the expectation that Latinos wouldn’t significantly support Trump and the Republican Party at the national level, the reality is that their votes patterned very closely with the movement that happened across the broader electorate.
To understand why this shift occurred and among whom, it’s important to examine the underlying assumption that Latinos will always vote Democrat. This belief stems from the historical trend of Latinos generally supporting Democratic candidates and leaning liberal on average. However, this assumption deserves deeper consideration.
When Latinos are asked how they perceive the political parties, many express dissatisfaction with both. They often feel unheard by both Democrats and Republicans, which helps explain certain election outcomes. It’s not just about which party is more appealing but also about which one is perceived as slightly more attentive, even if neither fully includes or represents Latino interests.
The gains Trump made among Latino voters require careful analysis. This shift wasn’t uniform across the entire Latino community but was more pronounced among specific groups—particularly men and those without a college education. When this is combined with the fact that the economy was a top priority for Latino voters in the last election, the reasons behind this shift become clearer.
Some post-election narratives blamed the shift on anti-immigration sentiments, but it’s a complex issue. It’s important to recognize that Latinos who supported Trump aren’t necessarily anti-immigrant. While some may favor stronger border security, qualitative and quantitative data show that many Latinos also support immigration reform. They advocate for pathways to citizenship for long-term residents without legal status and for “Dreamers”—children brought to the U.S. at a young age by their parents.
This highlights the nuanced perspectives within the Latino community. Their concerns often revolve around issues like resource scarcity and the impact of recent immigrant arrivals, rather than blanket opposition to immigration. Understanding these complexities is key to fully grasping Latino political behavior.
Yaatsil: It’s very interesting and everything that you have mentioned, it seems that it’s very much related and entangled with the future visions, right? The priorities, economic stability and also other issues that may play an important role in order to define this political behavior. What are your thoughts about the future panorama? Because you mentioned anti-immigrant behaviors, but also how fear maybe it’s framing the political behavior. But what are your thoughts about what’s going to happen from 2025 onward? What kind of role do all these frictions play?
Angela: I think one key thing to consider is what will happen with the Trump presidency once he steps into office. The kinds of policies he implements will definitely have a trickle-down effect on the community—absolutely. And that’s going to shape people’s experiences. It might make some reflect on whether they made the right decision, especially those who supported him.
For those who didn’t, there’s a real fear in the community about what’s coming. Trump has called for mass deportations of undocumented people, and that would impact a large portion of the community. We also know, based on U.S. history, that mass deportations haven’t only targeted undocumented people—individuals lawfully present have been deported as well. If Trump follows through on the promises he made during his campaign, it could significantly shape the future and prospects of the community.
On top of that, if some of his other policy proposals go into effect, there could be economic challenges. Many Latinos have been concerned about high prices and inflation, but if tariffs on imports are implemented, prices won’t go down—in fact, they could rise—and Latinos will feel that impact directly. That’s one of the immediate concerns we can predict.
But we’ll have to see how this administration plays out and how Latinos respond to it. Another thing to consider is what the future of the Latino electorate will look like. It’s becoming more complex and diverse over time. The community is growing, largely driven by U.S.-born Latinos, but there’s also been significant growth in certain national origin groups, like Venezuelans. How these shifts influence political priorities is something to watch closely.
It’s also important to think about representation—not just Latino voters, but who’s running for office. We’re seeing more Latinos and Latinas elected than ever before, but that still hasn’t kept pace with the growth of the population and electorate. Research shows that Latino voters feel mobilized and empowered when they see other Latinos running for office. So, while it’s hard to predict the future, we can imagine a scenario where a Latino front-runner could shift the political debate—similar to when Julián Castro ran in the primaries.
That’s something worth considering: how the presence of Latinos within political institutions can impact representation.
Yaatsil: Thank you very much, Angela. I do have a final question. How do these new landscapes affect you as a researcher?
Angela: It certainly means more work for me—trying to untangle and better understand such a diverse community. That’s one of the major challenges within political science and the study of political behavior. We know there’s significant diversity among Latino voters, but even now, there’s not enough research that truly disaggregates and explores all the nuances across different segments of the community.
Trying to understand election outcomes while keeping an eye on the future—while also acknowledging how diverse this community is—brings both challenges and opportunities. And it definitely shapes the work we do.
Now more than ever, research on Latino and Latina voters is crucial. The Latino community is vast and sizable in the U.S., and it can’t be ignored when studying American politics. You simply can’t talk about what’s happening in the U.S. without considering how the Latino community plays a role in that process.
Yaatsil: Thank you very much, Angela, for being here today.
Angela: Thank you for having me. And thank you very much to all of you.
Yaatsil: And don’t forget to follow us in the social media. Hasta la proxima.
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This HCIAS Blogcast has been just a short recap of a wide-ranging and thought-provoking discussion. If you would like to learn more about our guest and her work, you can listen to the whole episode here.
OpenEdition suggests that you cite this post as follows:
HCIAS Blog (February 21, 2025). Blogcast: The Latino Vote in the 2024 U.S. Presidential Election. HCIAS Blog. Retrieved May 11, 2026 from https://doi.org/10.58079/13cu8
